N'ime nkeji mbụ, ọnụ ahịa acrylonitrile yinye na-agbadata n'afọ n'afọ, ọsọ nke mgbasawanye ikike na-aga n'ihu, na ọtụtụ ngwaahịa nọgidere na-efunahụ ego.

1. Ọnụ ahịa ụgbụ agbadala otu afọ na nkeji mbụ

N'ime nkeji mbụ, ọnụ ahịa acrylonitrile yinye agbadala kwa afọ, na naanị ọnụ ahịa amonia bilitere ntakịrị n'afọ n'afọ.N'ime afọ ndị na-adịbeghị anya, ikike mmepụta nke ngwaahịa yinye nke acrylonitrile na-anọchi anya anọgidewo na-amụbawanye, na ụkpụrụ nke oke nke ngwaahịa ụfọdụ ejirila nwayọọ nwayọọ pụta, ọnụ ahịa ngwaahịa na-adaba nke ọma ma e jiri ya tụnyere otu oge ahụ n'afọ gara aga.N'ime ha, ABS bụ mbelata kasị ukwuu kwa afọ na ọnụ ahịa ngwaahịa, gbadata karịa 20% kwa afọ.Dị ka njedebe nke nkeji mbụ, nkezi ọnụahịa ahịa nke acrylonitrile na ọdụ ụgbọ mmiri East China bụ RMB10,416 kwa ton, gbadata 8.91% kwa afọ na elu 0.17% site na nkeji nke anọ nke afọ gara aga.

Banyere ụlọ ọrụ acrylonitrile n'onwe ya, ikike nke ụlọ ọrụ acrylonitrile nọgidere na-abawanye na nkeji mbụ.Dị ka ọnụ ọgụgụ ozi Zhuo Chuang si kwuo, ụlọ ọrụ acrylonitrile gbakwunyere ikike 330,000 na nkeji mbụ, elu 8.97% site na njedebe nke 2022, na ngụkọta ikike nke 4.009 nde tọn.Site na ọnọdụ ọkọnọ na ọchịchọ nke ụlọ ọrụ ahụ, ngụkọta mmepụta acrylonitrile bụ otu ugboro ihe dị ka tọn 760,000, gbadata 2.68% kwa afọ wee gbagoro 0.53% YoY.N'ihe banyere oriri ala, acrylonitrile downstream oriri bụ ihe dị ka tọn 695,000 na nkeji mbụ, gbagoro 2.52% kwa afọ wee gbadaa 5.7% n'usoro.

Mfu ego n'agbụ n'ime nkeji iri na ise mbụ bụ nnukwu mfu uru n'agbụ na nkeji iri na ise mbụ

N'ime nkeji mbụ, ọ bụ ezie na uru ụfọdụ ngwaahịa acrylonitrile na-abawanye YoY, ọtụtụ n'ime ngwaahịa ahụ nọgidere na-atụfu ego.ABS gbanwere nke ukwuu na ngwaahịa uru bara uru, nke dara karịa 90% YoY.N'ime nkeji mbụ, ọnụ ahịa acrylonitrile bilitere wee daa, ọnụ ahịa n'ozuzu ya na-ebili ntakịrị site na nkeji anọ nke afọ gara aga na nrụgide ọnụ ahịa na ngwaahịa ala na-abawanye.Tụkwasị na nke ahụ, nrịgo nke mgbasawanye ikike ABS gara n'ihu, na nrụgide ọnụ ahịa na-eri na osisi mụbara nke ukwuu, na ọnụ ahịa ndị na-emepụta ihe na-ebelata nke ukwuu.N'ihe banyere acrylonitrile, n'ihi mfu doro anya nke ụlọ ọrụ na 2022, ndị na-emepụta ihe na-agbanwe agbanwe n'ịgbanwe ibu akụrụngwa, yana nkezi ihe mmalite mmalite nke ụlọ ọrụ dara nke ukwuu na nkeji mbụ nke 2023, yana ọnụ ahịa na-arị elu wee daa. na ogo nke mfu nke ụlọ ọrụ acrylonitrile belatara ntakịrị ma e jiri ya tụnyere nkeji nke anọ nke afọ gara aga.Ka ọ na-erule njedebe nke nkeji mbụ, nkezi uru nke osisi acrylonitrile dị nso $ 181 / ton.

2. Chain omume na nkeji nke abụọ ka na-enweghị nchekwube

N'ime nkeji mbụ, ọnụ ahịa acrylonitrile bilitere wee daa, na ọnwụ nke osisi belatara ntakịrị.Na-ele anya n'ihu na nkeji nke abụọ, usoro n'ozuzu nke yinye ka na-enweghi nchekwube.N'ime ha, a na-atụ anya na usoro acrylic acid na amonia sịntetik ga-agbanwe ntakịrị;na acrylonitrile, ụfọdụ ụlọ ọrụ na-eme atụmatụ ịrụzi, mana a naghị atụ anya ka ọ dịwanye mma, ma ọ na-esiri ọnụ ahịa ike ịdaba na nkeji mbụ nke mbụ;na downstream ngwaahịa, acrylic acid ọnụ factory iwu bụ n'ozuzu, na-emepụta nwere ike inwe ihe ize ndụ nke price ibelata, ABS ọhụrụ mmepụta ikike na-aga n'ihu na-ahapụ, na anụ n'ozuzu ihe ọkọnọ bụ dịtụ oversuplied, na ahịa nwere ike ịnọgide na-adịtụ ala.N'ozuzu yinye ka na-enweghị nchekwube.